god is in session

wailing, screaming sirens

tear the night apart

screeching burnt rubber

scar the asphalt

as you deeply inhale and sigh

carbon, rubber and sweat

attack your senses

hands on the spinning steering wheel

thinking, planning, expecting

the unexpected

no plan survives initial contact

grabbing rushing pushing jostling

questions, answers

sobbing screaming crying

 ……. silence



gloved hands palpate poke prod

ears listen, eyes roam

instructions issued

 god is creating

and it will be good

skin exposed

clothes cut

working in blood and flesh

are gods tools

needles puncture

flashbacks appear

and reappear



machines beep

fast then faster

fluids chase in

smells assail your senses

burnt metal, blood, vomit

you drive them down

sweat drips off god

mixing with blood

god is in session

angels hover



pressure

applied and present

vials crack, needles puncture

….. skin

beep … beep …….. Beep

slower and slower

vocal chords visualised

the bag of life

is squeezed

continuously

rhythm of life is kept in balance

a refractory pause ensues

gloves changed, sweaty brows mopped

spectacles wiped clean of sweat

decisions discussions decisions



beeping changes

angels move closer

god intervenes

shoves them rudely aside

not today god says

not on my watch

© 2016 michael d emmerich

image courtesy of – Image © 2011-2017 DanSun PhotoArt

New Medical Writings

Feeling very proud; I have been approached by a Canadian based medical site to submit articles for publication. They are a Pan-Access worldwide collective of experts and non-experts creating a discussion about infection control and prevention using their  online publication forum, http://www.InfectionControl.tips

Check out my profile and my first article cleared for publication (working on the next few)

http://infectioncontrol.tips/author/memmerich/

Managing Infection Control in a Disaster

The Chemistry of Life

what is your pH

are you in the Zen

or are you just being acidic

breath in breath out

feel the symmetry of your inner diffusion



we could always be in an osmotic state

where we spontaneously move to be in balance

when we automatically

randomly intermingle to find our Zen state

the law of henry should be our mantra

balance the small stuff, and the big stuff aligns



Balance Ying Yang

the words that make the Zen go round

all of life needs to finds its fulcrum

including cellular life

as they say in life it’s the small things that matter

or is it the matter in the small stuff



Find your Zen

explore your inner chemistry

wear your No. 7 number with pride

find your inner balance

maybe you will then be in your Zen

 

© 2016 Michael D Emmerich

TECHNOLOGY IN MEDICINE

TECHNOLOGY IN MEDICINE

Past, Present and a Possible Future – Help or Hinder

Published in Sanguine, journal of the ECSSA June 2015

Technology in Medicine, a topic many in EMS chat about, and if we have been in service for 20 years plus, we have then been privileged (or cursed) to see significant changes across the board with regard to equipment, patient care, protocols and drug therapies. Many of us have actively pushed for change and new equipment; be it with regard to fluid therapy, bleeding control, pain management and airway management. As one who has been active in certain areas pushing for change, we sometimes miss the most crucial approach to patient care; neatly summed up by Hippocrates (400-ish BC)

Cure Sometimes. Treat Often. Comfort Always

The classic approach to patient care has always been underpinned by the following:

  • Arrive at a diagnosis by patient consultation and physical hands on examination

  • Confirm ones diagnosis via various diagnostic devices

  • Reaffirm ones diagnosis by means of special investigations

Will technology change this approach for better or the worse?

If we look back at history, we see that not all new technologies have been readily accepted by the medical community. Many were viewed (are viewed) with suspicion. In the 1930’s some doctors doubted an X-ray image of the chest was as reliable as a physical examination. Devices threatened to replace the diagnostic expertise of the traditional doctor. Many doctors have valued their clinical experience over machine-produced information. Other technologies initially failed because doctors or patients found them impractical. The ECG was only useful when it became portable and reliable enough to be used at the patient’s bedside.

We need to also seriously review our progress in Medical Technology with regard to changes that offer only incremental benefits but at much higher patient care cost. The focus must be on evidence-based product development, manufacturers have to be able to show their products and new technologies will add value to their customers. Does new technology automatically translate into better patient care and most importantly improved patient outcomes.Plus we need to ask the question; who is their customer, the patient or the medical practitioner? If we as practitioners treat our patients as customers, they will act like customers, we need to be very careful of venturing into a quagmire such as this.

The entire patient/medical practitioner relationship is also changing, as the patient has access to a wider range of medical information, our patients are possibly smarter (maybe). Patients have access to more medical information, with the end result, that at times, they might be less trusting and prone to ask more questions of their medical practitioner. As practitioners we must be open to this new questioning patient and be willing to answer more questions than we did in the past.

Taking cognisance of all of the above: what is the health care practitioner to do?

There is an acknowledged gap in the “bench to bedside” cycle of medical discovery and its implementation in clinical practice, which can mean a gap of years changing “what we know to what we practice”.Hence the treatment of patients in an emergency setting should not only be concentrated on developing new technologies, but must also involve proper training and skills development; medical talents needs to be honed. New technologies MUST always mandate new skill sets, protocols and procedures.

An area of import in my opinion in medical development is patient information. The more information we have on the patient at hand, will allow us to render more appropriate patient care. Information and knowledge management is critical in helping with the decision making process and thereby improving patient care. Many medical practitioners believe that patients should take an active role in managing their own health information, because it fosters personal responsibility and ownership and enables both the patient and practitioner to track progress outside scheduled appointments and at times of a medical emergency. Patient smart cards is one way to grapple with this issue of information. It will allow patients to upload their health records via a flash drive and carry their information with them in their wallet. Information may be accessed through cloud-based storage and encrypted systems anywhere in the world, or plugged into medical smart readers. Medical practitioners can update to cloud technology in real time and the patients own medical doctor can be alerted to changes in the cloud files.

Another key area where technology can aid us in having more information at our fingertips is via a “differential” diagnosis or problem list, which is accessed via the cloud and links to our patient file and further information we input. After we have reviewed the patient “history” and examination. (e.g. is this appendicitis? a urinary tract infection? constipation? inflammatory bowel disease?) The practitioner must then troll his memory banks and innate knowledge base, or one may need to consult texts/online sources to check up/confirm their thinking. Cloud based technology could aid us and speed up the confirmatory differential diagnosis. As their is no doubt much room for improvement in the current approach, with many practitioners currently relying on their tacit knowledge base at the frontline which, while mostly effective, is subject to human error. Once the differential diagnosis or problem list is drawn up, then a related treatment plan could be formulated, and treatments in the form of procedures and/or prescriptions for medications may be suggested by our cloud database.

Emergency Medicine must continue its current academic trajectory, to keep pace with the challenges that technology brings to our patient care. If academic training lags behind the technology curve our practitioners and therefore our patients will be the poorer. We must ensure that there is now technology/practitioner gap as we continue to push the boundaries in improving our patient care. The danger of technology, is that it has the ability to make us lazy and self reliant. It has become noticeable in certain areas of emergency medicine how our reliance on technology has allowed us to forget the three cornerstones of good medicine, diagnosis, confirmation and reaffirmation; of which the diagnosis and confirmation are reliant on us having a hands on approach to our patients (which is becoming a dying art). Good solid diagnostic skills will always be an essential tool of medicine, especially emergency medicine, we forget this at our and our patients peril.

THE NEED TO KEEP EBOLA ON THE FRONT PAGES

I had already started to pen this weeks article when a few headlines/comments/articles caught my eye, forcing me to push it onto the back burner, as I feel this issue is more pertinent and pressing.

A tweet from Laurie Garrett had me concerned. She tweeted; Google News no longer ranks #Ebola in top 20 search items, and even within the health category, only in the Italian and USA news-feeds. This was then followed by a press release from the UN (United Nations’ Ebola Emergency Response Mission – UNMEER) stating that they will miss their December the 1st containment target, due to escalating numbers of cases in Sierra Leone.

The kicker, that then really got me switching my thought train was a press release from the the nonprofit ONE.org (http://www.one.org/us/ebola-tracker/). The Ebola Response Tracker follows the money and shows us the money; i.e.: how much that has been pledged, has made it onto the ground in West Africa to fight the good fight. While the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the UN, and the World Bank have data on the dollar figures associated with each pledge, no one had taken the time to figure out how much of those resources have actually made it to the ground in West Africa.

Erin Hohlfelder, global health policy director at ONE and the brains behind the tracker, says the tracker shows the importance in transparency (and the follow through on ones commitment). “It’s one thing to make a great pledge and commit to doing that, but in the meantime, every day that goes by without these resources is a missed opportunity.”

While progress has been made in the months since these pledges, there is still much work to be done. The USA leads the pack with the highest pledge and disbursement; $572 million of which 72% has made it to the ground in West Africa. Here is a sampling of a few other countries, foundations and institutions: (in no particular order)

Google/Larry Page Family Foundation pledged $25 million – none disbursed yet

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation $50 million – 27% disbursed

African Development Bank $220 million – 20% disbursed

Paul G. Allen Family Foundation – $100 million 3% disbursed

Silicon Valley Community Foundation $25 million – none disbursed yet

EU $468 million – 17.5% disbursed

China $123 million – 8% disbursed

Australia $36 million – 38% disbursed

Visit their website to check out other countries and follow them on twitter and facebook.

At a press conference last week, Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf said that the progress her country has made may be damaging. “Our government remains concerned that progress in this battle will lead to complacency on the part of the international community. We must not interpret gains as an outright victory—nothing could be more dangerous.” Complacency must not be allowed to seep in, we need to keep the issues on the front pages. Margaret Chan, director of the World Health Organization, agrees on the complacency front; “We must not forget—Ebola virus is a formidable enemy. Yes, we are seeing some early signals of hope. Cases are stabilizing, we are also seeing some new areas where they are reporting new cases. We must maintain our vigilance. Complacency would be our enemy. And in order to get it to zero, we have been successful in bending the curve a bit, but we need to continue to do more to get to zero.”

The fight is still in the early stages, we must aggressively push to keep Ebola in the news and for more action on the ground. The international response is being outpaced by this epidemic, If more help doesn’t arrive soon, the worst may not be over. Ebola hasn’t simply overwhelmed these health-care systems, it has decimated them. Women in need of support for childbirth have been turned away, leading to an increase in infant morality rates in a region with the some of the highest numbers in the world. Children suffering from malaria or extreme diarrhea are now too often left without medical care, leading to an increase in deaths from dehydration. Life-saving vaccines for those illnesses and others are lying unused in clinics and warehouses, as there are not enough (or any) medical workers to disburse them. Crops are not being planted, food is not making it to the market places!

UNMEER was set up to provide coordination, policy and logistics rather than to treat patients. It needs more resources to halt Ebola as quickly as possible, at present the emphasis is on allocating existing resources in the smartest way, possibly because they are still waiting for more resources/pledges/manpower to make it to the ground in West Africa.

According to October estimates from the World Bank, the epidemic could cost the West African countries affected upward of $32 billion in the next 24 months. What are we waiting for! Every day spent without pledges being delivered on, manpower to hit the ground and the process of rebuilding shattered healthcare services and networks; more people die. Containing Ebola is a constant battle and already we are seeing it cropping up in Mali, where to next?

I will let Anthony Banbury from UNMEER end this weeks blog:

Containing the epidemic still calls for a tremendous increase in resources on the ground. We are far, far away from ending this crisis, there is a long battle ahead of us.

MEDICAL RESEARCH – AN EVIDENCE BASED APPROACH TO GLOBAL HEALTH

A question posed by Jessica Taaffe on twitter, who is a TWIGH panelist, is my inspiration for this weeks blog. The question posed was: If you were to list three major research gaps for access to medicines what would they be? I posted 2 comments to that statement, the 140 characters per tweet, was not enough to fully weigh into the matter, so I am using this weeks post as a soapbox to expand further.

Firstly you might be asking what does this have to do with global health? In a nutshell, it has a huge impact, access to medicines, is dependent on the research that underpins it, it is the foundation on which medicine that we use stands. How firmly it stands depends on the strength of the research. If the road travelled to arrive at the end product is not evidence based (we will discuss the vagaries of this shortly), we then run the risk of having a flawed product, or even in some cases a product that never sees the light of day, (see my blog on Politics and Medicine).

The two comments I posted to twitter stated that evidence based medicine must be driven by independent clinicians, scientists and medical policy makers. Furthermore I stated that Levels of Evidence A (LOE – A) must be the benchmark. We cannot just be led by the large multinationals (Pharma and Medical Device Industries), they can most certainly push money into research, but the parameters of that research must be in the hands of independent clinicians, shared decision making can and must play a key role. This is a huge challenge but must be addressed, we need to claim back the labs and work alongside the drug and medical device industries

So what is evidence based medicine , why is it important and why do I say the we need to adhere to LOE -A?

Evidence based medicine grew out of critical appraisal, when Gordon Guyatt took over as the director of the internal medicine registry programme at McMaster University. He wanted to change the program so that physicians managed patients based not on what authorities told them to do but on what the evidence showed worked. It then appeared in an article in “The Rational Clinical Examination” series in Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) in 1992.

The strength of evidence is assessed by a specific grading system which, in fact, is quite simple. It combines a description of the existence and types of studies supporting a certain recommendation.

-Level of evidence A: recommendation based on evidence from multiple randomized trials or meta-analyses

-Level of evidence B: recommendation based on evidence from a single randomized trial or non-randomized studies

-Level of evidence C: recommendation based on expert opinion, case studies, or standards of care.

So the highest standard to attain is LOE – A, is this always the case? In 2009, a very interesting paper was published in JAMA, assessing the strength of evidence underlying the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and the American Heart Association (AHA) practice guidelines. They were reviewing recommendations to see if they were based on strong levels of evidence (LOE – A) and how much is based on “expert” opinion.

In only 11% of the guidelines published was LOE – A the benchmark, and most of the current guidelines included more than 50% of LOE – C as the standard! The authors correctly concluded that “expert opinion remains a dominant driver of clinical practice, particularly in certain topic areas, highlighting the need for clinical research in these fields”. I am sure if we had to review other areas of medical research we will be in a similar ballpark.

I can cite numerous examples from my own area of speciality where we have used certain drugs for years, with no studies definitely stating that they were beneficial to the patient, but there use was continued because of expert opinion, what drove that expert opinion is open to debate.

The Internet has also allowed incredible access to masses of data and information. However, we must be careful with an overabundance of “unfiltered” data. As history, as clearly shown us, evidence and data do not immediately translate into evidence based practice.

This is where the Cochrane Review stands the test of time, as it enable the practice of evidence-based health care, where health care decisions can be made based on the best available research, which is systematically assessed and summarised in a Cochrane Review. Cochrane Reviews are systematic reviews of primary research in human health care and health policy, and are internationally recognised as the highest standard in evidence-based health care.

In closing then, to come back to the original question; what three major research gaps for access to medicines:

  1. Research must be evidence based with LOE-A as the gold standard

  2. Research must be driven by independent clinicians, scientists and medical policy makers

  3. Research needs to be taken back to the labs and institutions who will research what is needed globally.

We would need large NGO’s such as the WHO and the European Research Council (amongst others) to monitor and guide where research needs to be focussed. We need to thank all scientists, inventors, and researchers who are motivated by the need to know, the thrill of discovery,and the desire to make a positive contribution to mankind as a whole and acknowledge the right of people to the common ownership of medicines/vaccines etc. which are basic to their common and individual well being, as to life itself.

As the cognitive linguist George Lakoff puts it, “Empathy is at the heart of real rationality, because it goes to the heart of our values, which are the basis of our sense of justice. Empathy is the reason we have the principles of freedom and fairness, which are necessary components of justice.”

MALNOURISHMENT – A GROWING CONCERN – Food as a Weapon

The number of hungry people has fallen by over 200-million since 1992, so says the 2014 Hunger Map and a report titled “The State of Food Insecurity in the World: Strengthening the Enabling Environment for Food Security and Nutrition” jointly prepared by World Food Programme (WFP), the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).

They go on to say that 805 million people, or one in nine of the world’s population, go to bed hungry each night. But in Sub-Saharan Africa, this is even worse, with one in four people suffering from undernourishment. The report says that sub-Saharan Africa faces the most severe challenges in securing its food; mainly due to sluggish income growth, high poverty rates and poor infrastructure, which hampers physical and distributional access.

It states: “In general, in Africa, there has been insufficient progress towards international hunger targets, especially in the sub-Saharan region,”

The report also says limited progress had been made in improving access to safe drinking-water and providing adequate sanitation facilities, while the region continues to face challenges in improving dietary quality and diversity, particularly for the poor. I did some work in the Southern DRC (based out of Lubumbashi in 2006) and we noted then that dehydration, was the leading cause of death in children under the age of 5. Dehydration as the result of diarrhoea, caused by unsanitary drinking water. For those who survive they are then in turn faced with stunted growth, which is made worse by poor food nourishment.

This report just published confirms that the situation has not changed in the past 8 years, limited progress had been made in improving access to safe drinking-water and providing adequate sanitation facilities. In fact the report notes, that progress has been so poor, that the WFP target of halving the number of undernourished people by 2015, will not be realised.

The report highlights the following to move forward:

1. Sustained political commitment at the highest level
2. Placing food security and nutrition at the top of the political agenda
3. Creating an enabling environment for improving food security and nutrition through adequate investments
4. Better policies, legal frameworks and stakeholder participation
5. Institutional reforms are also needed to promote and sustain progress.

Plus an integrated plan focussing on:

1. Public and private investments to raise agricultural productivity
2. Better access to inputs, land, services, technologies and markets
3. Measures to promote rural development
4. Social protection for the most vulnerable (persons and countries)
5. Including strengthening their resilience to conflicts and natural disasters
6. Specific nutrition programmes, especially to address micro-nutrient deficiencies in mothers and children under five.
As reports go it is a very good piece of work tackling many complex issues and outlining clear broad action plans. As with most reports though, I take issue with their expected outcomes, to broad, not specific and in my opinion, to broad. Its like position papers from government departments or even aid agencies. It does not tackle the problem head stating what is at fault and what needs to be done in clear action plans; to do that will require stepping on toes or worse – maybe even naming names!

Regional conflicts, greedy power hungry warlords all demanding access to food, how it is priced and distributed. This can affect when and if crops are planted, and who gets the produce, and they who sells it. Food can be and is used as a weapon, to control people or even to get votes, Zimbabwe and South Africa are cases in point.

The cost of food is then another key factor, Lester Brown wrote in 2011’s “Food Issue” of the Foreign Policy magazine:

Americans generally spend less than 10% of their income on food, but there are 2 billion people who live in poverty around the globe who spend 50 to 70 percent of their income on food.

A slight increase in the cost of food for these persons could be life or death, and the costs when they do escalate, are beyond the control of the consumer, at times manipulated by external forces, for their own (political or economic) gain.

On a sad and macabre note, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and China ventured beyond their borders in 2008 to grow grain in cheaper regions, such as Ethiopia and Sudan, where, of course, people where starving and did not get any of the planted grain.

So where to from here; I think if we cast our eyes to Burkina Faso, we might see a way out, People Power. The people need to speak and speak loudly in the only way the politicians and regional leaders will listen.

Politics and Medicine

Politics and Medicine

“Medicine is a social science, and politics is nothing else but medicine on a large scale”—Rudolf Virchow

Politics is defined as “organised human behaviour”, thus we can postulate that Medicine is micro managed organised human behaviour, at times right down to the molecular level. If we examine the Ebola outbreak/s (globally) and how it is being managed on a macro (politics) and micro scale (medicine) we can begin to see the cracks in the system, and hopefully then move to addressing these cracks, before they begin yawning chasms that are not repairable.

The region (Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea) has had success (we could add Nigeria and Senegal to the successes) and failures in both areas. Neither is Spain and the USA exempt from this analysis as can be noted from the various press releases (government and medical) over the past few months.

Since the first outbreaks in 1976 (Sudan and The DRC) till the current one in West Africa; care has generally been palliative and symptomatic, questions have often been asked during this period; What of a vaccine and/or other means of treating the infected patients? There was a report in the British Sunday Times (12/10/14), cited a Cambridge University zoologist as saying that “it is quite possible to design a vaccine against this disease” but reported that applications to conduct further research on Ebola were rebuffed because “nobody has been willing to spend the twenty million pounds or so needed to get vaccines through trial and production”. Globally this has been one of the failures of the pharmaceutical companies, and most probably even the WHO, for not pushing harder over the years to get this in motion.

In her 1994 book The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance Laurie Garrett: warned that there are more than 21 million people on earth “living under conditions ideal for microbial emergence.” Garrett when on to win the Pulitzer Prize in 1996 for reporting on Ebola. In 1995 Joshua Lederberg, the American molecular biologist said: “The world is just one village. Our tolerance of disease in any place is at our own peril. Are we better off today than we were a century ago? In most respects, we’re worse off. We have been neglectful of the microbes, and that is a recurring theme that is coming back to haunt us.”

Jump forward to the 23rd of September 2014, US President Obama issued an unprecedented ‘Presidential Memorandum on civil society  recognising that:

Through civil society, citizens come together to hold their leaders accountable and address challenges that governments cannot tackle alone. Civil society organisations…often drive innovations and develop new ideas and approaches to solve social, economic, and political problems that governments can apply on a larger scale.

If we look at the current crises in West Africa civic leaders are what is missing, hence the inability to track and trace potential infected persons, motivate communities to change risky behaviours (handing of the deceased), agitate with government to create better health care systems, this all adds fuel to the fire of the current epidemic.

Have we listened and learnt as governments, NGO’s and Multinational Pharmacare companies since then?

Despite Medical Advances, Millions Are Dying, this is a banner from 1996, not 2014! from the WHO, which was “declaring a global crisis and warning that no country is safe from infectious diseases, the World Health Organization says in a new report that diseases such as AIDS, Ebola, Hanta, Mad Cow, tuberculosis, etc., killed more than 17 MILLION people worldwide last year”.

As Laurie Garrett wrote in her the closing section of her book, The Coming Plague, “In the end, it seems that American journalist I.F. Stone was right when he said, ‘Either we learn to live together or we die together.’ While the human race battles itself, fighting over ever more crowded turf and scarcer resources, the advantage moves to the microbes’ court. They are our predators, and they will be victorious if we, Homo sapiens, do not learn how to live in a rational global village that affords the microbes few opportunities. It’s either that or we brace ourselves for the coming plague.”

Time is short.

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa is “unquestionably the most severe acute public health emergency in modern times,” Dr. Margaret Chan, the director general of the World Health Organization, said Monday 20/10/2014). We do seem to be going in circles… circa 1995.. have we learnt nothing from history.

Sooner or later we learn to throw the past away History will teach us nothing Sting – Musician, singer-songwriter

Where have all the people gone, long time passing?

Where have all the people gone, long time ago?

Where have all the people gone?

Gone to graveyards, everyone.
 Oh, when will they ever learn?

Oh, when will they ever learn?

Pete Seeger – American folk singer and activist

Why High-Income Countries Should Help Combat Ebola

A slight change from my usual postings, but a subject close to my heart and my profession. Here then are my thoughts as to why, globally we should be involved in the West African Ebola outbreak.

As a passionate and committed African, having spent the past 20 years working in various countries on my continent, and having seen the effects of colonisation, globalization, war as a result of minerals and commerce (funded by big western businesses) and how Africa is marginalised via trade and commerce. Never mind the fact that all the ex-French colonies still pay tax to France, even years after independence!!
http://www.siliconafrica.com/france-colonial-tax/
It is also true that Africa’s problems are also created by many corrupt Africa politicians and greedy emerging markets in Africa.

With that as my introduction, then what should we do in the event of disasters, war, famine and in the case of Ebola (disease outbreaks).

As a human race we all live in a global village and we cannot and should not stand by when we see our fellow man/woman suffering; be it in Syria, Ukraine or in this case West Africa (Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia). Every effort should be made to help when and how we can, be it with manpower, resources or financial aid.

The entire Southern West Africa region is still emerging from a decades long conflict (partly made infamous by Blood Diamonds) and their are trails ongoing in the Hague re this conflict. One could even argue that western powers (corporate and country) were complicit in this conflict, hence they should now have at least an ethical (if not moral) motivation to get involved. Far to often we stand on the sides and wring our hands at the mess Africa is in and that it never seems to get out of this mess (that in itself is another long missive for another day/thread).

For now the region needs beds (hospitals) and staff to man them, there is a huge shortage of beds. The one thing that this epidemic (as most of them do) has taught us that it is gloves not vaccines that will make the difference. Good basic hygiene, clean water, bleach/chlorine and excellent palliative care in a sterile environment will make a difference. Those who have survived have survived for these reasons.

All of the above needs to sustainable in the medium to long term and the affected countries must be encouraged through means of trade and commerce to make these changes real and lasting. I know this last paragraph sounds pie in the sky, but the rich western countries and corporates (Large Pharma) in this case must commit to push for it to happen not for their end gains and increase in share price (cynical comment re what is motivating large Pharma in this case), but for the good of the region.

People in West Africa will have to alter behaviours, we won’t stop this outbreak solely by building hospitals. There will have to be a change in the way the community deals with the disease. Changing behaviour which is so closely linked to culture, tribe and religion will not happen in the short term. which means that the worst case scenario could come to fruition, which is over 100,000 cases by the 1st of December. (as outlined in some disease modelling programmes!)

Government ministers in the region are also not focussing on the key ways to attempt to manage this outbreak. Shutting down Sierra Leone for 4 days will just push the outbreak underground. Infected persons will go into hiding or even worse; leave the area/region (as some of my sources on the ground have informed me, is already happening!)

We need beds, hospitals and basic supplies. (I must just say a big thank you to the USA for planning to build 170 100 bed hospitals in the region). Beds and hospitals is not being dealt with as urgently as it should be by local governments, they are waiting for outside funders to step in, they must drive the initiative on the ground and mobilise local leaders to work with their villages to manage this outbreak, otherwise the worst case scenarios that are being punted look scary. Both MSF and WHO are pushing for this, but they need local governmental support.

My closing comment is that gloves not drugs (vaccines) will save the day. Basic good clean sanitary medicine and palliative care, aligned with sound symptomatic treatment will save lives, for that we need beds, hospitals, staff and supplies.